New industry report identifies 55 commercially viable intra-African routes without direct flights as infrastructure and fleet constraints continue to limit continental integration
Africa’s aviation sector continues to face a widening connectivity challenge despite rising passenger demand, with 55 commercially viable intra-African routes still lacking direct scheduled flights, according to Embraer’s 2026 Africa Connectivity Report.
Released during the AviaDev Africa Conference in Gaborone, Botswana, the report suggests that while demand for regional air travel continues to strengthen, airline network expansion has failed to keep pace, leaving significant commercial opportunities untapped across the continent.
According to Embraer, the number of commercially viable city pairs without direct air services has increased from 45 routes in 2025 to 55 in 2026, highlighting a growing mismatch between passenger demand and airline route development.
The report argues that the principal challenge confronting African aviation is no longer a lack of demand, but the industry’s ability to deploy appropriate aircraft, optimise route economics and develop sustainable regional networks.
Cape Town-Lagos Leads Unserved Routes
Among the continent’s largest unserved markets, Cape Town-Lagos ranked first, with an estimated 70 passengers travelling daily in each direction despite the absence of direct scheduled flights.
Other high-potential routes identified include:
- Cape Town-Lusaka
- Dakar-Libreville
- Bamako-Libreville
- Abuja-Nairobi
South Africa accounted for three of the ten largest unserved markets, with Cape Town-Lagos, Cape Town-Lusaka and Durban-Mauritius all featuring prominently in the rankings.
The findings suggest that travellers continue to rely heavily on indirect connections through regional hubs, increasing travel time and costs while limiting business mobility across Africa.
Passenger Demand Continues to Accelerate
The report also identified several routes recording exceptional year-on-year passenger growth despite the absence of direct services.
Among the fastest-growing markets were:
- Johannesburg-Mwanza (+272%)
- Harare-Gqeberha (+137%)
- Asmara-Nairobi (+100%)
- Lagos-Zanzibar (+92%)
- Cape Town-Zanzibar (+72%)
- Cape Town-Francistown (+71%)
- Durban-Mauritius (+70%)
- Cape Town-Lagos (+54%)
According to Embraer, the growth reflects increasing business travel, tourism, diplomatic engagements and visits by friends and relatives across the continent.
New Routes Show Progress
While connectivity challenges persist, the report noted encouraging progress in several markets where airlines introduced new direct services.
Among them:
- Air Tanzania launched direct flights between Cape Town and Dar es Salaam in December 2025.
- Kenya Airways introduced non-stop services between Abidjan and Douala.
- Air Senegal is expected to commence direct operations between Dakar and Cotonou during July 2026.
These additions demonstrate that targeted route development can quickly remove long-standing connectivity bottlenecks.
Right-Sized Aircraft Seen as Key
Rather than advocating larger aircraft, Embraer argues that many underserved African routes are ideally suited to regional jets and smaller narrow-body aircraft.
According to the report, sustainable expansion will depend less on aircraft size and more on matching capacity with actual passenger demand while maintaining commercially viable flight frequencies.
The manufacturer concludes that airlines adopting appropriate fleet strategies could improve operational efficiency while unlocking new regional revenue opportunities.
BrandiQ Insight
Africa’s Connectivity Problem Is Becoming an Economic Problem
The findings extend beyond aviation. They point to one of Africa’s most persistent barriers to economic integration. Despite the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), physical connectivity remains one of the weakest links in continental commerce. Businesses cannot trade efficiently when executives, investors, entrepreneurs and professionals must transit through Europe or the Middle East to reach neighbouring African countries.
Air connectivity has become an economic competitiveness issue rather than simply a transportation challenge.
Every Missing Flight Represents Lost Business
Behind every unserved route lies unrealised economic activity.
Direct air links stimulate:
- Trade
- Tourism
- Foreign direct investment
- Conference and exhibition business
- Professional services
- Technology collaboration
- Academic partnerships
A direct Lagos-Abuja flight is taken for granted within Nigeria. Yet travelling between Lagos and several African commercial capitals often requires lengthy layovers that increase costs and reduce productivity. Poor connectivity therefore acts as a hidden tax on African business.
The Opportunity for Nigerian Aviation
Nigeria appears prominently in the report through the Cape Town-Lagos and Abuja-Nairobi markets. This presents strategic opportunities for Nigerian airlines seeking regional expansion.
As Africa’s largest economy and one of its biggest aviation markets, Nigeria is well positioned to become a stronger continental hub if airlines align fleet planning with emerging regional demand. The challenge will require investment not only in aircraft but also in airport infrastructure, bilateral agreements, regulatory cooperation and operational reliability.
Aviation Is Infrastructure for Economic Integration
Roads connect cities.
Railways connect regions.
Airlines connect economies.
Without efficient aviation networks, Africa’s ambitions for regional value chains, digital commerce and cross-border investment become significantly harder to achieve. The continent’s infrastructure conversation should therefore treat aviation as a strategic economic asset rather than merely a transport service.
The Bigger Picture
Embraer’s report reinforces an important reality about Africa’s development trajectory. The continent does not suffer from a shortage of demand. It suffers from a shortage of systems capable of converting demand into economic opportunity.
For policymakers, airlines and investors, the message is clear: the next phase of African aviation growth will depend less on generating passengers than on building smarter networks, deploying appropriately sized aircraft and creating the institutional conditions that allow regional air transport to flourish.
For African brands, businesses and investors, improved air connectivity is more than a convenience – it is a critical enabler of trade, innovation, talent mobility and continental economic integration.
